The paper introduces a learned atmospheric critic that discriminates between real weather data and model outputs to produce a realism score. Unlike fixed metrics, the discriminator adapts to the specific failure modes of a given model, effectively detecting various synthetic corruptions in ERA5 data. Experiments show the learned critic outperforms existing metrics and reveals that realism decreases with longer forecast lead times, favoring numerical over machine‑learning models.
arXiv:2606. 10642v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have achieved impressive forecasting performance at a small fraction of the computational costs required for traditional physics-based methods.
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
arXiv:2510. 02415v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed.
arXiv:2607. 20778v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Weather forecasting foundation models (FMs) are increasingly fine-tuned to predict air quality, offering fast global pollution forecasts at lower computational cost than conventional chemical transport models.
arXiv:2504. 20238v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill.
arXiv:2606. 02663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have produced probabilistic weather forecasting models comparable to state-of-the-art numerical weather predictors.
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
arXiv:2608. 01864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting drought risk is essential for anticipating impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate adaptation planning.
GenONet introduces a Spatio-Temporal U-DeepONet architecture that serves as a generator in a GAN framework for high‑resolution precipitation nowcasting up to three hours ahead. By learning continuous‑time precipitation dynamics with a Deep Operator Network and enforcing physics through a moisture‑conservation loss, the model produces sharp, physically consistent forecasts that outperform baselines, especially for high‑intensity events and longer lead times. Ablation studies confirm the added value of the physics‑informed regularizer and the synergy of operator learning with adversarial training.
arXiv:2608. 09683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses.
arXiv:2603. 11229v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning forecast systems are moving beyond point predictions to full predictive distributions for future outcomes y conditional on complex inputs x.