arXiv Machine Learning

Uncertainty measurement for complex event prediction in safety-critical systems

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Safety Filters for Probabilistic Neural Network Dynamics

arXiv:2604. 26836v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive safety filters (PSFs) leverage model predictive control to enforce constraint satisfaction during deep reinforcement learning (RL) exploration, yet their reliance on first-principles models or Gaussian processes limits scalability and broader applicability.

By Bernd Frauenknecht, Lukas Kesper, Daniel Mayfrank, Henrik Hose, Sebastian Trimpe
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Learning to Predict, Discover, and Reason in High-Dimensional Event Sequences

The paper proposes a new framework for automated fault diagnostics in modern vehicles by treating diagnostic trouble codes (DTCs) as a high‑dimensional language. It introduces Transformer‑based models for predictive maintenance, scalable causal discovery methods, and a multi‑agent system that automatically generates Boolean error‑pattern rules. The approach aims to replace costly manual grouping of DTCs with scalable, data‑driven techniques.

By Hugo Math
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression

arXiv:2504. 18433v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations.

By Christopher B\"ulte, Yusuf Sale, Timo L\"ohr, Paul Hofman, Gitta Kutyniok, Eyke H\"ullermeier
arXiv AI
Aug 20

Interval POMDP Shielding for Imperfect-Perception Agents

The paper introduces Interval POMDP Shielding for agents with imperfect perception, aiming to prevent unsafe actions when sensor readings may be misclassified. By estimating perception uncertainty from finite labeled data, the authors construct confidence intervals and model the system as a finite Interval Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. They propose an algorithm that computes a conservative belief set, enabling a runtime shield that guarantees, with high probability, that any action allowed by the shield meets a specified safety lower bound. Experiments on four case studies demonstrate that this shielding approach outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines in safety.

By William Scarbro, Ravi Mangal