arXiv Machine Learning

Uncertainty-Guided Label Rebalancing for CPS Safety Monitoring

arXiv:2603. 25670v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Safety monitoring is essential for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs).

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Cost-Sensitive Conformal Prediction and Human-in-the-Loop Abstention for Imbalanced High-Stakes Decision Support: A Multi-Domain Benchmark

arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.

By Manpreet Singh, Akshatha Srikantha, Shyamal Lakhanpal
arXiv AI
Sep 12

Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

The paper introduces Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a post‑hoc framework that calibrates each model’s confidence independently and uses these calibrated scores to decide when to accept an early prediction, invoke a stronger model, or combine outputs. CAUC establishes a common reliability scale across heterogeneous models, decoupling deployment policies from specific model pools or budgets. Experiments on six language benchmarks show a 1.9% relative accuracy gain over strong‑model‑only inference while cutting strong‑model calls by about 47%, and on image classification it maintains or improves performance while reducing GFLOPs by up to 57%.

By Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu, Ying Liu, Wei Zhao
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 4

Robust and Personalized Federated Learning for Aircraft-Engine Prognostics under Benign and Adversarial Client Heterogeneity

Federated learning (FL) enables aircraft fleet operators to jointly train remaining-useful-life (RUL) models from engine sensor telemetry without sharing raw data. This study examines two complementary challenges: benign heterogeneity, where honest operators observe different operating conditions and fault modes, and adversarial heterogeneity, where compromised operators submit poisoned updates.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

Confounding-Valid Conformal Inference for Counterfactual KPIs in Wireless Networks

The paper introduces Confounding-Valid Counterfactual Conformal Inference (CV‑CCI), a method that merges abundant observational telemetry with limited randomized data to answer network operators’ ‘what‑if’ questions about key performance indicators (KPIs). CV‑CCI uses the General Synthetic‑Powered Inference principle to maintain finite‑sample coverage guarantees even when hidden confounding is present, while producing tighter prediction sets than existing baselines. Experiments on two radio access network control tasks demonstrate the method’s validity under hidden confounding and its improved efficiency.

By Abdessamed Qchohi, Jessica Moysen Cortes, Matteo Zecchin
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 17

Uncertainty measurement for complex event prediction in safety-critical systems

The paper presents a machine‑learning approach (ML_CP) that automatically learns patterns and rules for complex event prediction, reducing reliance on manual rule creation. It incorporates sensitivity analysis to assess how output varies with each input and uses conformal prediction to generate uncertainty‑aware prediction intervals. Experiments on binary, multi‑level classification, and regression tasks show promising results for safety‑critical embedded systems.

By Maria J. P. Peixoto, Akramul Azim