arXiv Machine Learning

From Conceptual Hydrologic Models to Conceptually Interpretable Neural Networks: A Snow-Water Mass-Conserving-Perceptron Framework for Discovering Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Representations

arXiv:2607. 26492v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) establishes a modeling paradigm in which conceptual hydrologic models can be reformulated as physically constrained, conceptually interpretable neural networks.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics

arXiv:2510. 02605v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While many modern studies are dedicated to ML-based large-sample hydrologic modeling, these efforts have not necessarily translated into predictive improvements that are grounded in enhanced physical-conceptual understanding.

By Yuan-Heng Wang, Yang Yang, Fabio Ciulla, Hoshin V. Gupta, Charuleka Varadharajan
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 24

Reconstructing GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks: An Application to South America

arXiv:2606. 23833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Terrestrial water storage (TWS) integrates snow, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater and is a key indicator of how climate variability and human activity reshape the global water cycle.

By Lukas Arzoumanidis, Lara Johannsen, Klara Middendorf, Annette Eicker, Youness Dehbi
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

DELUGE: Towards Continental-Scale Daily Pluvial Flood Damage Prediction via Interpretable Conditioning on Foundation Model Embeddings

arXiv:2607. 16050v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use.

By Yuya Kawakami, Daniel Cayan, Dongyu Liu, Kwan-Liu Ma, Tom Corringham
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

INDEQS: Informed Neural controlled Differential EQuationS

arXiv:2606. 19138v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) provide a powerful continuous-time framework for forecasting time series, but standard graph-based extensions typically learn spatial structure purely from data, even in settings where a directed graph structure is known a priori.

By Michael Detzel, Gabriel Nobis, Kristiyan Blagov, Juri Schubert, Jackie Ma, Wojciech Samek
arXiv AI
Jul 28

AIFL: A Global Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model Using a Deterministic LSTM Pre-trained on ERA5-Land and Fine-tuned on IFS

arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.

By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 28

HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

arXiv:2607. 23983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer.

By Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li, Xu Shan, Jia Feng, Shunan Zhou, Xudong Zhou, Tiantian Xing, Jiale Guo, Xiaoyi Dong, Gaoyu Liu, Xiaohuan Liu, Haiqing Pu, Qingwen Deng, Xun Zhang, Zhongrun Xiang, Haiyang Qian, Ying Yan, Yongkang Xu, Nuo Lei, Tianlong Jia, Baoying Shan, Carlo De Michele
arXiv AI
Jul 3

Spatial Support Matters: Geometry-Aware Graph Fusion for Rainfall Field Reconstruction

arXiv:2607. 01621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fine-scale rainfall reconstruction is critical for urban flood modeling, but real rainfall sensing systems observe the field through incompatible spatial supports: gauges measure points, microwave links measure paths, and radar/satellite products measure gridded areas.

By Low Jun Yu, Niramay Kachhadiya, Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath, Sanka Rasnayaka, Lucy Amanda Marshall