arXiv Machine Learning

Less is more: error-distance scaling relation for data-efficient kilometer-scale downscaling of extreme heat

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Lightweight Probabilistic Downscaling from a Deterministic Base Model

The paper introduces lightweight probabilistic downscaling models that build on a modified U‑Net backbone, adapting two recent machine learning techniques from weather forecasting. Using a two‑stage training curriculum—deterministic pretraining followed by probabilistic fine‑tuning—the authors evaluate their models on the CORDEX‑ML‑Bench suite for daily maximum temperature and precipitation in the Alps, New Zealand, and South Africa. The results show that this approach outperforms the current state‑of‑the‑art in RMSE, offering a more computationally efficient method for generating fine‑resolution regional climate data.

By Joseph McLean, Tiffany Vlaar, Sigrid Passano Hellan, Linus Ericsson
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research

arXiv:2606. 11534v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Urban heat is amplified by impermeable surfaces and heterogeneous built environments, yet street-level variability remains difficult to quantify because multi-sensor observations are rarely available in consistent, analysis-ready form at the necessary spatiotemporal scales.

By Jonathan Starfeldt, Maria J. Molina, Alexander Kerr, Adam Yang, Thomas R. H. Holmes, Christopher R. Hain
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

High-Resolution Climate Projections Using Diffusion-Based Downscaling of a Lightweight Climate Emulator

arXiv:2602. 13416v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting.

By Haiwen Guan, Dibyajyoti Chakraborty, Moein Darman, Troy Arcomano, Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Romit Maulik