arXiv:2606. 07898v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-resolution regional climate simulations provide critical information for climate impacts assessments but remain computationally expensive, motivating the development of machine-learning downscalers and emulators.
arXiv:2602. 13416v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting.
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
arXiv:2607. 03279v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate regional weather prediction requires resolving fine-scale structure while remaining consistent with global dynamics.
arXiv:2509. 15942v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale.
The paper introduces lightweight probabilistic downscaling models that build on a modified U‑Net backbone, adapting two recent machine learning techniques from weather forecasting. Using a two‑stage training curriculum—deterministic pretraining followed by probabilistic fine‑tuning—the authors evaluate their models on the CORDEX‑ML‑Bench suite for daily maximum temperature and precipitation in the Alps, New Zealand, and South Africa. The results show that this approach outperforms the current state‑of‑the‑art in RMSE, offering a more computationally efficient method for generating fine‑resolution regional climate data.
arXiv:2609.39833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Extreme rainfall events are increasing in intensity and frequency as climate change accelerates. While kilometer-scale precipitation forecasts are crit...
arXiv:2606. 14570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function.
arXiv:2607. 05645v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep-learning-based climate downscaling aims to learn relationships from historical low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) climate data to generate HR climate projections.
arXiv:2606. 30821v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic downscaling is the task of modeling the conditional distribution of high-resolution fields given coarse inputs, and is a central challenge to atmospheric science, climate modeling, and other multiscale physical systems.
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
arXiv:2606. 19302v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints.
As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill.