arXiv:2606. 17028v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Simple linear and frequency-domain models remain surprisingly competitive in long-horizon time-series forecasting, and recent mechanistic evidence suggests that standard forecasting benchmarks may not require the dense superposed representations that make transformers powerful in other domains.
arXiv:2609.23686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Patch-based autoregressive time-series forecasting often ties input representation, learned transitions, and recursive execution to one patch length. W...
arXiv:2606. 10868v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
arXiv:2608. 04051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world time series are often governed by recurring patterns, but their dominant periods may vary across datasets, forecasting settings, and individual input windows.
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
arXiv:2606. 01306v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While Transformer-based architectures have established themselves as a dominant paradigm in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF), their core self-attention mechanism inherently functions as a low-pass filter, systematically smoothing out high-frequency signals vital for sharp local changes.
arXiv:2608. 16098v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time-series forecasting faces a structural dilemma: sharing one temporal predictor across variables is parameter-efficient but forces heterogeneous variables through an identical history-to-future map, whereas learning an independent predictor per variable restores flexibility at a cost that grows with the product of variable count, context length, and horizon.
The paper investigates whether entire Transformer blocks can be skipped during inference in two time‑series foundation models, Chronos‑Bolt and TimesFM 2.5. By applying block‑level masks selected on calibration windows, the authors show that moderate sparsity (e.g., 7/11 blocks for Chronos‑Bolt and 16/20 for TimesFM) preserves forecasting quality while reducing latency by roughly 11–13%. However, more aggressive skipping degrades performance on certain datasets, and dynamic, input‑dependent routing remains unproven across architectures.
EPOC (Endpoint‑Preserving Online Correction) is a method for multi‑horizon time‑series forecasting that compresses residual information using low‑order discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients and the final residual value. It applies channel‑wise online ridge regressions to blend a DCT‑based correction with a base forecast, achieving significant reductions in mean squared error (15.40%) and mean absolute error (9.35%) across 96 fixed‑base conditions while keeping auxiliary state small (median 6,352 B). The approach outperforms several existing adapters and offers a lightweight, endpoint‑focused correction strategy.
arXiv:2606. 01339v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Long-term time-series forecasting needs models that are accurate yet efficient enough for commodity hardware.
arXiv:2610.07080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Attention maps are often interpreted as evidence of what a forecasting model uses when making predictions. In our load-forecasting model, a CLS represe...
arXiv:2609.36521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Physical-field reconstruction and forecasting depend on both measurement density and spatial layout, yet evaluation under a single observation pattern...