arXiv:2605. 13181v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics.
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
arXiv:2609.24559v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present $t_0$, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: $\texttt{t0-a...
arXiv:2607. 02344v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Transformer architectures have shown strong potential in time series forecasting, where multi-head self-attention is widely used to capture temporal dependencies across historical timestamps.
KITE is a knowledge‑injected temporal encoder that augments self‑supervised event forecasting with semantic priors supplied by system engineers. It uses two switchable mechanisms—a covariate mechanism and an attention‑bias mechanism—so the same architecture can incorporate different prior types without per‑dataset tuning. Experiments show that informative priors improve performance in short contexts and enable out‑of‑domain transfer, while priors already present in the observed window have little effect.
arXiv:2609.39386v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are evaluated as forecasters of future values, yet for sparse series many decisions depend only on whi...
arXiv:2606. 27282v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy.
arXiv:2607. 08046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast.
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
The paper introduces Horizon-Resolved eXplanation (HRX), a framework that adds a horizon axis to time‑series forecasting explanations, allowing each forecast step to have its own importance map. HRX operates as a plug‑in for any differentiable forecaster, includes an evaluation protocol that tests the impact of removing top‑ranked inputs, and a rank criterion to decide when horizon resolution is beneficial. Experiments across multiple backbones and datasets demonstrate that incorporating the horizon axis improves explanation quality and that the step‑wise dependence is low‑dimensional, requiring only a few shared maps regardless of forecast length.