Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2608. 14652v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The development of 0.
By Yang Zhao, Peisong Niu, Tian Zhou, Ziqing Ma, Guanlong Ma, Rong Jin, Huiling Yuan, Liang Sun
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
By Jakob Schloer, Steffen Tietsche, Christopher D. Roberts, Lorenzo Zampieri, Simon Lang, Gert Mertes, Gareth Jones, Matthew Chantry, Frederic Vitart
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
By David Aaron Evans, Jay C. Rothenberger, Kara J. Sulia, Nick P. Bassill, Chris D. Thorncroft
arXiv:2602. 13416v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting.
By Haiwen Guan, Dibyajyoti Chakraborty, Moein Darman, Troy Arcomano, Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Romit Maulik
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
By Renu Singh, Robert Brunstein, Antonia Jost, Yana Hasson, Thomas Rackow, Claire Monteleoni, Christian Lessig, Guillaume Couairon