The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.
By Timothy A. Smith, Mariah Pope, Sergey Frolov, Brett Basarab, Daniel Abdi, Paul Madden, Isidora Jankov
arXiv:2408. 11336v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Climate change stands as one of the most pressing global challenges of the twenty-first century, with far-reaching consequences such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and increasingly extreme weather patterns.
By Tajamul Ashraf, Janibul Bashir
arXiv:2605. 13566v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable for various applications, such as urban climate and ecology studies.
By Solomiia Kurchaba, Angela Meyer
arXiv:2606. 27277v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions.
By Junwei Luo, Shuai Yuan, Zhenya Yang, Yansheng Li, Zhe Liu, Hengshuang Zhao
arXiv:2607. 04117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: ERA5 seasonal climate variables contain predictive information about future glacier retreat beyond what satellite imagery alone provides, yet existing deep learning methods focus on mapping current boundaries rather than forecasting future ones.
By Arunkumar Ramachandran
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
By Matteo Peduto, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Devis Tuia, Sherrie Wang
Varda‑single‑1.0 is a medium‑range, data‑driven weather prediction system designed for Switzerland’s Alpine region, delivering hourly deterministic forecasts at 1 km resolution and global forecasts at 31 km. It uses two independently trained stretched‑grid Graph Transformer models—an autoregressive forecaster and a temporal downscaler—trained through a curriculum that starts with ERA5 reanalysis, proceeds to a 20‑year regional reanalysis, and ends with fine‑tuning on operational analyses. Over a one‑year verification, Varda‑single matches or surpasses MeteoSwiss’s numerical weather prediction baselines for most key metrics, though it underestimates local wind peaks and produces smoother convective precipitation fields.
whyItMatters":"The system demonstrates that high‑resolution machine‑learning models can rival traditional numerical weather prediction in complex terrain, offering a complementary tool for operational forecasting and research."
By Alberto Pennino, Francesco Zanetta, Michele Cattaneo, Claire Merker, Radi Radev, Jonas Bhend, Louis Frey, Hugues de Laroussilhe, Oph\'elia Miralles, Carlos Osuna, Daniele Nerini, Andreas Pauling, Daniel Hupp, Ulrich Hamann, Mary McGlohon, Marti Bosch, Luca Lanzilao, Marco Arpagaus, Lukas Jansing, Daniel Leuenberger, Mark A. Liniger, Katrin Ehlert, Matthew Chantry, H\aa{}vard Homleid Haugen, Gert Mertes, Ana Prieto Nemesio, Mario Santa Cruz, Jasper Wijnands, Gabriel Moldovan, Harrison Cook, Oliver Fuhrer
The paper introduces SolCloudLLM, a large language model–based framework that fuses sky‑image patches with time‑series data through bidirectional multimodal fusion for short‑term solar forecasting. Experiments on the SIRTA and SKIPP'D datasets show that SolCloudLLM outperforms existing baselines, achieving up to a 25.4% reduction in mean squared error, especially under cloudy conditions and in few‑shot scenarios.
By Ken Chen, Maneesha Perera, Wei Wang, Sachith Seneviratne, Hansani Weeratunge, Saman Halgamuge
arXiv:2608. 06241v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing machine-learning weather forecasting models rely on predetermined and fixed autoregressive timesteps.
By Sam Levang, Fran Bartolic, Ty Dickinson, Chase Dwelle, Paulius Rauba, Viktor Cikojevic
arXiv:2608. 00879v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a fundamental biophysical variable governing land-atmosphere interactions; however, LAI forecasting at high spatial resolution remains an unsolved challenge.
By Zhixing Ruan, Lixin Lu
We present Varda-single-1.0, a medium-range data-driven weather prediction system built for the Alpine domain. It provides hourly deterministic regional forecasts on a mesh of 1 km resolution and glob...
arXiv:2608.12685v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: An ``Attention Residual U-Net'' method is described for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) that predicts the hourly...
By Thomas M Hamill