arXiv:2406. 13668v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made.
arXiv:2607. 12928v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the online binary sequential calibration problem.
arXiv:2607. 19689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of recalibrating an online predictor [KE17, OKS24]: given an arbitrary "hint" sequence of forecasts, the learner must output new predictions that are calibrated while incurring small excess error relative to the original forecasts, under a proper loss.
arXiv:2306. 02704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce \emph{Calibrated Stackelberg Games (CSGs)}, a generalization of the standard Stackelberg Games (SGs) framework.
The paper investigates the feasibility of exact truthfulness in calibration measures for sequential binary prediction. It proves that exact truthfulness cannot coexist with completeness and soundness, even when outcomes are independent. The authors then provide two reductions that transform any base calibration measure into additively or multiplicatively approximately truthful ones, achieving a multiplicative truthfulness guarantee that improves upon previous results.
arXiv:2605. 26703v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classic concept of "calibrated forecasts" and its more recent refinement, "calibeating," are defined with respect to the standard quadratic scoring rule.
arXiv:2606. 18527v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: U-calibration studies online forecasting algorithms whose predictions can be consumed by any unknown downstream agent, guaranteeing sublinear regret simultaneously for all proper loss functions.
arXiv:2610. 08816v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-range temporal dependence poses a resource question for sequence models: for a specified predictive-memory law, how much state, context, or dynamical criticality is required in order to forecast accurately?
The paper investigates the computational and statistical challenges of the calibration distance, a key metric for measuring miscalibration in probabilistic predictors. It presents an efficient algorithm for exact computation when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, and shows that the problem becomes NP‑hard if either assumption is dropped. The authors also provide a polynomial‑time approximation scheme for the general case and establish tight sample complexity bounds for estimating the calibration distance from data.
arXiv:2609.06484v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Planning with a generative model aims to estimate the value of a state using as few simulator calls as possible. SmoothCruiser achieves problem-indep...
arXiv:2606. 29203v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the Bayesian fixed-budget best-arm identification problem in which a learner can abstain from making a terminal recommendation.
arXiv:2609. 01999v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study a variant of the Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm, called $\alpha$-TS, for solving stochastic generalized linear bandit problems.