arXiv:2406. 13668v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made.
arXiv:2610.07623v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probability forecasts are calibrated when predicted probabilities match empirical outcome frequencies: among events assigned a probability $p$, we'd...
arXiv:2607. 12928v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the online binary sequential calibration problem.
arXiv:2609.38375v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Can a constant number of linear minimizations per round improve on the $T^{3/4}$ regret rate of online Frank-Wolfe on general convex sets? Weibel et al...
arXiv:2607. 19689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of recalibrating an online predictor [KE17, OKS24]: given an arbitrary "hint" sequence of forecasts, the learner must output new predictions that are calibrated while incurring small excess error relative to the original forecasts, under a proper loss.
arXiv:2505. 21460v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set $P \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ relative to an arbitrary norm $|\cdot|$.
The paper investigates the computational and statistical challenges of the calibration distance, a key metric for measuring miscalibration in probabilistic predictors. It presents an efficient algorithm for exact computation when the distribution has a uniform marginal and noiseless labels, and shows that the problem becomes NP‑hard if either assumption is dropped. The authors also provide a polynomial‑time approximation scheme for the general case and establish tight sample complexity bounds for estimating the calibration distance from data.
arXiv:2306. 02704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce \emph{Calibrated Stackelberg Games (CSGs)}, a generalization of the standard Stackelberg Games (SGs) framework.
arXiv:2602. 06257v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Online strategic classification studies settings in which agents strategically modify their features to obtain favorable predictions.
arXiv:2511.05620v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study worst-case dynamic regret of specific multi-armed bandit algorithms on piecewise-stationary instances with at most one breakpoint. Our con...
arXiv:2610. 12211v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A verifier that accepts or rejects whole answers reveals little: under a flat prior over $k$-bit answers, zero error needs $2^k-1$ verifications.
arXiv:2607. 20258v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study regret minimization for learning CDF-related objectives of the form \[ g(x)\cdot\mathbb{P}_{X\sim\mathcal{D}}(X\le x), \] over $[0,1]^2$, where $g$ is a known Lipschitz function and $\mathcal{D}$ is an unknown distribution.
arXiv:2606. 00835v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Network routers that enforce Quality-of-Service (QoS) guarantees must decide, at every clock cycle, which expiring packet of information to transmit, even when the value of the packet is unknown until it is processed.