arXiv Machine Learning

Structured Machine Theory of Mind from Agent Trajectories

arXiv AI
Oct 9

More Than Meets the Eye? Uncovering the Reasoning-Planning Disconnect in Training Vision-Language Driving Models

The paper introduces DriveMind, a large-scale driving Visual Question Answering corpus that aligns chain-of-thought reasoning with trajectory planning. Experiments with Vision‑Language Model agents show a causal disconnect: removing navigation priors significantly harms planning, while removing the chain-of-thought has little effect. The authors propose the Reasoning‑Planning Decoupling Hypothesis and present a training‑free probe to assess an agent’s reliance on priors.

By Xurui Song, Shuo Huai, JingJing Jiang, Jiayi Kong, Jun Luo
arXiv AI
Jul 7

Do Vision-Language-Action Models Mean What They Say? On the Role of Faithfulness in Embodied Reasoning

arXiv:2607. 04681v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Embodied Chain-of-Thought has emerged as a promising mechanism to enhance robot decision-making and interpretability in black-box Vision-Language Action (VLA) models.

By Matthew Foutter, Matteo Cercola, Lena Wild, Yunshan Wang, Michelle Li, Daniele Gammelli, Marco Pavone
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 9

MotiveMob: Motivation as Semantic Action for Closed-Loop Human Mobility Generation

MotiveMob is a motivation-driven autoregressive framework for generating human mobility trajectories. It models the "why-where-when" decision process by first predicting a plausible motivation for each movement step and then jointly generating the next location and arrival time. The approach is evaluated under user-level and temporal distribution shifts, including seasonal changes and COVID-19 disruptions, and consistently outperforms pretraining- and prompting-based baselines in distributional fidelity.

By Mengkun Gao, Zengqing Wu, Renhe Jiang, Jiawei Wang, Yusong Wang, Chuang Yang, Shuyuan Zheng, Makoto Onizuka, Chuan Xiao
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 23

Super Agents and Confounders: Influence of surrounding agents on vehicle trajectory prediction

The paper analyzes state‑of‑the‑art vehicle trajectory predictors and finds that many surrounding agents actually worsen prediction accuracy. Using Shapley attribution, it shows models learn unstable, non‑causal decision schemes that vary across training runs. The authors introduce a Conditional Information Bottleneck that compresses agent features and ignores unhelpful ones, improving accuracy and robustness across datasets and architectures.

By Daniel Jost, Luca Paparusso, Martin Stoll, J\"org Wagner, Raghu Rajan, Joschka B\"odecker
arXiv AI
Jul 1

What Probing Reveals about Autonomous Driving: Linking Internal Prediction Errors to Ego Planning

arXiv:2606. 31106v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale datasets and fast simulators have enabled improvements in driving policies that appear safe and robust, yet strong performance in nominal scenarios can still mask flawed reasoning and unsafe heuristics.

By Hyeonchang Jeon, Kyungbeom Kim, Eugene Vinitsky, Kyung-Joong Kim
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Planning Takes More Than Token Prediction: Causal Plan for Benchmarking and Building Physically Grounded Embodied Reasoners

The paper argues that current embodied vision‑language planning benchmarks favor linguistic next‑token prediction over physically grounded next‑state reasoning, leading models to rely on language priors rather than true causal dependencies. To address this, the authors introduce Causal‑Plan‑Bench, a diagnostic suite covering four causal dimensions, and Causal‑Plan‑1M, a million‑scale corpus of explicit causal reasoning traces extracted from egocentric videos. Extensive experiments show that existing models perform poorly on these tasks, while a new model trained with a tailored recipe—Causal Planner based on Qwen3‑VL‑8B—achieves significant gains, demonstrating the feasibility of physically grounded causal reasoning.

By Zheng Lu, Mingqi Gao, Qinlei Xie, Wanqi Zhong, Hanwen Cui, Zirui Song, Lijie Wang, Chong Luo, Bei Liu, Yiming Li