arXiv Machine Learning

Estimation, Prediction, and Assortment Optimization for Markov Chain Choice Models with Panel Data

arXiv:2607. 09817v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose a framework for the Markov chain (MC) choice model with panel data, including parameter estimation, personalized choice prediction, and personalized assortment optimization.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31

Robust Assortment Optimization from Observational Data

The paper introduces a robust framework for assortment optimization that addresses distributional shifts in customer choice behavior. It demonstrates computational tractability when the nominal choice model is known and develops statistically optimal algorithms for the data‑driven setting, providing matching upper and lower bounds on sample complexity. The authors identify "robust item‑wise coverage" as the minimal data requirement for efficient robust learning, bridging robustness and statistical efficiency in assortment planning.

By Miao Lu, Yuxuan Han, Han Zhong, Zhengyuan Zhou, Jose Blanchet
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 13

Diffusion-Based Data-Driven Assortment Optimization

arXiv:2608. 11419v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Assortment optimization is a fundamental problem in revenue management, typically addressed using parametric choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) and its variants.

By Junyi Liao, Xiaohui Jiang, Zhengwei Tong, Ethan X. Fang, Vahid Tarokh
arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 25

Learning to Select and Rank from Choice-Based Feedback: A Simple Nested Approach

The paper tackles a ranking and selection problem where a company learns from choice-based feedback presented in dynamic assortments. It introduces two efficient algorithms—Nested Elimination for best-item identification and Nested Partition for full-ranking identification—each with instance-specific, non-asymptotic sample-complexity guarantees that are asymptotically worst-case optimal. The authors analyze the algorithms via multi-dimensional random walks, extend the framework to capacity-constrained displays, and validate their results with synthetic and real data experiments.

By Junwen Yang, Yifan Feng
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

SAUSS: Stochastic Approximation with Unbiased Simulated Scores for Limited Dependent Variable Models

The paper introduces SAUSS, a stochastic approximation method that uses conditionally unbiased mini‑batch score estimates for multinomial choice models. By employing a fixed mini‑batch size and exact conditional sampling, SAUSS reduces simulation bias and computational cost compared to simulated maximum likelihood. The authors provide asymptotic theory, simulation results, and an application demonstrating comparable accuracy in far less time.

By Sokbae Lee, Yuan Liao, Myung Hwan Seo, Youngki Shin
arXiv AI
Jun 16

LLM-Powered Virtual Population for Demand Simulation and Pricing

arXiv:2606. 16183v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices.

By Chengpiao Huang, Kaizheng Wang