arXiv:2608.20406v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends....
By Yushu Zou, Ye Li, Johra Moosa, Martin Grunnill, Samir N. Patel, Venkata R. Duvvuri
The paper introduces a lightweight deep learning framework that forecasts Brazilian soybean yields using only routine weather data and two simple static inputs (crop year and agro-environmental label). Across 20 seasons, transformer-based models achieved the highest accuracy, outperforming traditional ridge regression and a moving‑average baseline by nearly 48%. Ablation studies show that the static inputs and spatial expansion improve performance without adding complexity, and SHAP analysis highlights the importance of crop year and weather variables in driving yield variations.
By Fernando Dupin da Cunha Mello (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), Prashant Kumar (Global Centre for Clean Air Research), Erick G. Sperandio Nascimento (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil)
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv:2607. 10208v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate meteorological forecasting is essential for agricultural planning, irrigation management, and environmental decision support.
By Piotr Sikora, Sotirios Kontogiannis
arXiv:2606. 29248v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up.
By Ranuga Weerasekara, Heshan Nethmina, Manuja Ranathunga, Vinma Wettasinghe, Dinithi Navodya, Subavarshana Arumugam, Nirasha Munasinghe, Nisansa de Silva, Sandareka Wickramanayake
arXiv:2604. 22328v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operations.
By Marco Obermeier, Marco Pruckner, Florian Haselbeck, Andreas Zeiselmair
The study evaluates crop‑yield forecasting methods for the 2012 Midwestern US drought, comparing non‑deep learning machine learning models with a deep learning model (VITA) using 16 meteorological predictors. It highlights challenges such as distributional dissimilarity between training and test data, spatial and temporal sparsity, and demonstrates that sample weighting and feature selection improve non‑deep learning models but not VITA. The work contrasts deep versus non‑deep learning approaches and shows how modifications can mitigate issues arising from extreme drought conditions.
By Shrey Gupta, Yi Ming, George Mohler
arXiv:2608.29008v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Accurate forecasting of grape berry temperature (Tb) is essential for enabling timely heat stress management in vineyards. In this study, a feed-forwar...
By Srikanth Gorthi, L. G. Divyanth, Dattatray Bhalekar, Markus Keller, Lav Khot
arXiv:2608. 09255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available.
By Aditya Ramnarayan, Fatih Evren, Patti Gunderson, Samuel Rosenberg
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2607. 17511v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains.
By Wentao Gao, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu, Thuc Duy Le, Jixue Liu, Yanchang Zhao, Yun Chen
arXiv:2310. 20545v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a multi-task optimization approach based on a deep learning architecture for time series forecasting.
By Giovanni Felici, Antonio M. Sudoso