arXiv Machine Learning

When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets

arXiv:2606. 29248v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 8

FAME: Forecastability-Aware Mixture of Experts for Heterogeneous Time Series Forecasting

Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606. 15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate.

By Louis Agyekum, Edmund Fosu Agyemang, Obu-Amoah Ampomah, Kofi Acheampong, Emmanuel Boadi, Priscilla Yaa Amakye, Fafa Shalom Tchorly, Enock Adu Bonsu, Eric Nyarko
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 5

Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

arXiv:2604. 26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data.

By My Thi Diem Phan, Trung Tuyen Truong, Hoai Phuong Ha, Dat Thanh Nguyen
arXiv AI
Jun 9

Integrating Deep Learning Demand Forecasting with Multi-Objective Optimization for Circular Coffee Supply Chains: A Data-Driven Framework for Cost, Emissions, and Freshness Management

arXiv:2606. 08314v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The coffee supply chain is one of the most complex agri-food networks, marked by geographically dispersed production, multi-tier coordination, and high sensitivity to quality and freshness.

By Ger\c{c}ek Budak (Department of Industrial Engineering, Ankara Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m Beyaz{\i}t University, Ke\c{c}i\"oren, Ankara 06010, T\"urkiye), Faraz Gholamzadeh Gharehgheshlaghi (Department of Industrial Engineering, Ankara Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m Beyaz{\i}t University, Ke\c{c}i\"oren, Ankara 06010, T\"urkiye), Melika Barjesteh Vaezi (Department of Kinesiology and Sport Management, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, United States), Ahmad Gholizadeh Lonbar (Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA)
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.

By Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova, Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Ruijun Ma, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitry Efimov
arXiv AI
Jun 29

The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka

arXiv:2606. 28190v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025).

By Dhinanjaya Fernando, Dinura Ginige, Kalana Lakshan, Chanupa Gurusinghe, Lasana Pahanga, Subavarshana Arumugam, Sandeepa Weerasekara, Sandareka Wickramanayake, Nisansa de Silva