Hybrid forecasting systems that combine machine learning with numerical weather prediction are explored using a neural‑network representation of model error within the Integrated Forecasting System. The study introduces a targeted neural‑network 4D‑Var approach that estimates only network parameters and a batched extension that processes assimilation windows in random order, averaging parameter updates across multiple windows. Experiments show that while sequential online learning improves forecasts during training, it fails to generalise, whereas the batched formulation consistently enhances out‑of‑sample forecast skill and improves convergence with larger batch sizes.
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.
arXiv:2610.14863v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven weather forecasting models are commonly trained on ERA5, yet operational deployment must use timely initial states from physics-based numer...
Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models across nowcasting, medium-range, and subseasonal-to-sea...
This study introduces the first controlled benchmark of generative models for weather data assimilation using real station observations from 11,849 NOAA MADIS stations across the U.S. It evaluates key design choices—diffusion vs. flow matching, pixel vs. latent-space formulations, and inference-time conditioning strategies—against a classical 3D-Var baseline. The benchmark finds that learned generative priors and full-gradient guidance improve RMSE over ERA5, while other design variations offer minimal benefit, especially under sparse observation conditions.
arXiv:2607. 21080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm.
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
arXiv:2609.24882v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hybrid AI-physics climate modeling aims to improve coarse (~100km-resolution) Earth system models by learning to parameterize subgrid processes from hi...
arXiv:2610.00728v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Weather reanalysis products rely on computationally intensive numerical weather predictions followed by data assimilation that corrects the forecas...
arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...
arXiv:2601.21151v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine-learning approaches to weather forecasting often employ a monolithic architecture in which distinct physical mechanisms, such as advection,...
arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the nume...