arXiv AI

How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims

arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?

arXiv AI
Sep 10

How to Verify Probabilistic Consistency of Predictive Models

The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.

By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv AI
2d ago

Can AI Oversight Be Zero Knowledge?

The paper investigates whether interactive arguments for oracle‑aided AI computations can be zero‑knowledge, meaning the verifier learns nothing beyond the correctness of the output. It proves that, in general, zero‑knowledge proofs for all oracle‑aided computations are impossible, even in the random oracle model, and this impossibility extends to debate protocols. However, if the oracle signs each answer with a cryptographic signature, then every oracle‑aided computation can be verified in zero‑knowledge with efficient provers and verifiers, assuming only collision‑resistant hash functions.

By Alessandro Chiesa, Ziyi Guan, Burcu Yildiz
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Truthful Calibration Measures for Sequential Prediction

The paper investigates the feasibility of exact truthfulness in calibration measures for sequential binary prediction. It proves that exact truthfulness cannot coexist with completeness and soundness, even when outcomes are independent. The authors then provide two reductions that transform any base calibration measure into additively or multiplicatively approximately truthful ones, achieving a multiplicative truthfulness guarantee that improves upon previous results.

By Anagha Gokul, Jason Hartline, Lunjia Hu, Jonathan Ullman, Yifan Wu