arXiv:2606. 26418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A non-agentic "oracle" AI that estimates probabilities of future events faces a self-reference problem: once its answer is learned and acted upon, it can change the very probability it was asked to report.
arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?
The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.
arXiv:2608.30246v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The fundamental theorem of statistical learning states that, under suitable measurability assumptions, finite Vapnik--Chervonenkis (VC) dimension gua...
arXiv:2607. 06570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure.
arXiv:2609.25388v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal p...
arXiv:2605. 03823v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study strong universal Bayes-consistency in the realizable setting for learning with general metric losses, extending classical characterizations beyond $0$-$1$ classification (Bousquet et al.
arXiv:2606. 14688v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI systems coupled to proof assistants now generate formal mathematics at scale, and the gap between what a checker can verify and what a mathematician would value has become the binding constraint.
arXiv:2608. 16438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In a world where valuable artifacts are increasingly created, completed, or processed by LLMs, the central economic question is not only what the LLM can produce, but what \emph{value} remains in the inputs (i.
The paper introduces the Probabilistic Allen Algebra (PAA), a generative and complete extension of Allen's interval algebra that assigns relation probabilities based on Gaussian distributions over interval boundaries. PAA models time points and intervals with Gaussian and truncated‑Gaussian parameters, enabling graded temporal expressions and a tolerance band for contact relations. The algebra preserves Allen's taxonomy, supports scale invariance, and is validated through Monte‑Carlo simulations, with the implementation released as an open Python package.
arXiv:2606. 16541v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Autoformalization, translating natural-language mathematics into formal proof assistants, is bottlenecked not by translation fluency but by \emph{faithfulness}: a formal statement can typecheck and be provable, yet still encode a different theorem than the source intended.
arXiv:2606. 15712v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We ask a structural question: given unreliable elementary problem-solvers, what organizations of them solve hard problems reliably, and what are the limits?
arXiv:2104. 11547v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical models contain variables that are not random: parameters, treatments, environments, design points.