arXiv AI

How to Verify Probabilistic Consistency of Predictive Models

The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.

arXiv AI
Aug 12

How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims

arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?

By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv AI
3d ago

Certifiably Interpretable Training of ReLU-MLPs for Boolean Tasks with Guaranteed Truth-Table Generalization

The paper introduces MACCHIATO, a training algorithm that builds a ReLU‑MLP from partial truth‑table data while simultaneously constructing an explicit Boolean circuit over AND, OR, and XOR gates that certifies the network’s computation. The method iteratively projects residuals onto low‑dimensional Boolean classes, compiles the resulting circuit into a ReLU‑MLP, and uses logic minimization and influence‑based variable selection to achieve a six‑layer network with provable truth‑table error bounds. Experiments on synthetic random‑junta tasks show that these certified networks outperform Adam‑trained MLPs in data‑sparse or projection‑aligned regimes and complete faster than flat ESPRESSO in certain settings.

By Hrad Ghoukasian, Anastasis Kratsios
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Truthful Calibration Measures for Sequential Prediction

The paper investigates the feasibility of exact truthfulness in calibration measures for sequential binary prediction. It proves that exact truthfulness cannot coexist with completeness and soundness, even when outcomes are independent. The authors then provide two reductions that transform any base calibration measure into additively or multiplicatively approximately truthful ones, achieving a multiplicative truthfulness guarantee that improves upon previous results.

By Anagha Gokul, Jason Hartline, Lunjia Hu, Jonathan Ullman, Yifan Wu