arXiv:2608. 11181v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time?
By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
The paper presents an interactive probabilistically checkable proof (PCP) protocol that allows a polynomial‑time verifier to check the approximate consistency of a probabilistic predictor defined by two circuits, P and Q. By evaluating these circuits at a few points and querying a proof oracle that encodes a witnessing probability distribution, the verifier can confirm that the predictor’s many conditional‑probability claims are self‑consistent. The authors also establish that the problem of verifying l₂‑approximate consistency for explicit probabilistic claims lies in NP, with certificates of size O(mn + log B), and show how to eliminate dependence on the input bit‑precision B through a small additive gap.
By Orr Paradise, Oliver Richardson, Yoshua Bengio, Shafi Goldwasser
arXiv:2608.30246v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: The fundamental theorem of statistical learning states that, under suitable measurability assumptions, finite Vapnik--Chervonenkis (VC) dimension gua...
By Mateus Jesus de Arruda Campos, Gabriel Fernandes, Vinicius de Oliveira Rodrigues
arXiv:2607. 06570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure.
By Rowan Iskandar
arXiv:2609.25388v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal p...
By Xuelin Yang, Baihe Huang, Yilong Hou, Guido Imbens, Michael I. Jordan
arXiv:2605. 03823v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study strong universal Bayes-consistency in the realizable setting for learning with general metric losses, extending classical characterizations beyond $0$-$1$ classification (Bousquet et al.
By Dan Tsir Cohen, Steve Hanneke, Aryeh Kontorovich