arXiv Machine Learning

Deep End-to-End Survival Analysis with Temporal Consistency

The paper introduces a new survival analysis algorithm that leverages reinforcement learning concepts, specifically a delayed target network inspired by Deep Q-Networks, to enforce temporal consistency across consecutive survival predictions. This framework supports complex architectures and mini‑batch, end‑to‑end training, and demonstrates improved performance on long‑sequence datasets compared to benchmarks. Ablation studies reveal that the delay in target updates significantly affects predictive accuracy and training stability.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 4

SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.

By Samuel B\"ohm (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany), Lennart Purucker (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Frank Hutter (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Pascal Schlosser (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, US, CIBSS - Centre for Integrative Biological Signalling Studies, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany)
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

DynSHAP is a SHAP-based framework designed for dynamic survival analysis, extending marginal SHAP estimators to handle time–feature pairs as players in the Shapley game. It introduces Temporal DynSHAP, which models linear dependencies across time and uses conditional sampling to improve explanations. Experiments on synthetic data and two real-world clinical datasets show that Temporal DynSHAP more accurately recovers temporally dependent features and provides faithful attributions for two DSA architectures, enabling medical experts to identify which patient information influenced predictions and when.

By Nastasya Anokhina, Jonas J\"ur{\ss}, Pietro Li\`o
arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 18

State-Change Learning for Prediction of Future Events in Endoscopic Videos

The paper introduces SurgFUTR, a state‑change learning framework for predicting future events in endoscopic videos. Instead of forecasting raw observations, it classifies transitions between current and future states using a teacher‑student architecture and an Action Dynamics module. The authors also present SFPBench, a benchmark with five short‑ and long‑term prediction tasks, and demonstrate consistent improvements across multiple datasets and procedures, including cross‑procedure transfer.

By Saurav Sharma, Chinedu Innocent Nwoye, Didier Mutter, Nicolas Padoy
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

MedGym:A Unified Continuous-Time Benchmark for Dynamic Medical Treatment Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606. 01028v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical treatment recommendation poses several challenges to reinforcement learning (RL): patient physiology evolves in continuous time, measurements and interventions are performed at irregular intervals, and treatment effects vary substantially across individuals.

By Yuepeng Wang, Ken Kawano, Yongqi Zhou, Yoshihiko Fujisawa, Richard Weiss, Akifumi Wachi, Katsuki Fujisawa, Ying Chen, Mehrshad Sadria, Xin Liu, Kyoung-Sook Kim, Xiao Hu, Sebastien Gros, Xun Shen