The paper introduces the Markov Chain Car‑Following (MC‑CF) model, an empirical probabilistic approach that represents car‑following as a Markov process and samples accelerations from empirical distributions within discretized state bins. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset shows that MC‑CF variants outperform physics‑based baselines and compete with modern data‑driven methods in both one‑step and open‑loop trajectory prediction. Zero‑shot transfer to the Naturalistic Phoenix dataset and microscopic ring‑road simulations demonstrate cross‑domain generalization and scalability, with the model reducing collisions and reproducing naturalistic shockwave propagation.
arXiv:2501. 17015v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Simulation plays a crucial role in assessing autonomous driving systems, where the generation of realistic multi-agent behaviors is a key aspect.
The paper introduces a quantum-inspired representation of driver behavior that models drivers as evolving density matrices, capturing continuous, probabilistic, context-dependent, and history-dependent interactions among behavioral variables. Trained unsupervised on the I‑24 MOTION dataset, the framework identifies three interpretable driving regimes—free flow, transition, and congestion—and reproduces macroscopic traffic phenomena such as the fundamental diagram and hysteresis loops. The representation also enhances practical applications by providing context-dependent parameters for classical car‑following models and enabling autonomous vehicles to forecast nearby drivers’ motion in real time.
arXiv:2606. 06423v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Safety-critical traffic scenario generation is essential for evaluating autonomous driving systems under rare but high-risk interactions.
Traffic microsimulators rely on hand-crafted behavior models that reproduce aggregate flow but miss the heterogeneous interactions between vehicles at signalized intersections. Learned trajectory predictors capture richer interactions but are short-horizon and tend to be unstable when run in closed loop.
RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
The paper presents a single pretrained diffusion traffic model that serves both as an ego motion planner and as a controllable generator of safety‑critical scenarios for autonomous driving. It introduces a Single‑Stream Dual‑Stream diffusion‑transformer decoder (SSDS) that fuses scene context via joint attention, improving closed‑loop performance on the nuPlan benchmark, and a training‑free guidance scheme called Decoupled Annealing Posterior Sampling with Energy (DAPSE) that injects arbitrary energy functions at inference time. Using the same model, the authors generate realistic long‑tail driving interactions—such as aggressive cut‑ins and lead‑vehicle braking—through inference‑time guidance, exposing failure modes in black‑box planners that standard benchmarks miss.
The paper introduces WM‑RMoE, a World Model‑based Risk‑aware Mixture‑of‑Experts framework for autonomous overtaking. It uses a learned latent dynamics model to perform multi‑step rollouts, evaluating cumulative risk at the trajectory level, and employs a hierarchical gating mechanism to coordinate long‑, short‑horizon, and rule‑based safety experts. A Gaussian Mixture Model preserves multimodal maneuver branches, improving robustness and preventing behavioral averaging, leading to better safety compliance, decision stability, and generalization in experiments.
arXiv:2606. 02287v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Urban trajectory generation is a fundamental task for transportation simulation, urban planning, and mobility analytics.
arXiv:2511. 06229v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper focuses on dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation (DODE), a crucial calibration process necessary for the effective application of microscopic traffic simulations.
arXiv:2604. 16084v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management.
arXiv:2607. 07844v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While closed-loop motion planners trained on large-scale, object-level datasets, e.
arXiv:2608. 03330v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This thesis addresses fundamental challenges in traffic scene prediction for autonomous driving by introducing robust and computationally efficient models based on polynomial representations.