arXiv:2608. 09768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken.
By Ange-Cl\'ement Akazan, Ineza Remy Mugenga, Abebe Geletu, Jean Medard Ngnotchouye, Issa Karambal
The paper investigates the consistency of surrogate loss methods for classification and policy learning when the set of admissible classifiers is constrained, such as by interpretability or fairness requirements. It shows that hinge loss is the only surrogate that preserves consistency when constraints limit only the prediction set, but consistency can fail if constraints also restrict the functional form. The authors derive conditions guaranteeing consistency for hinge-risk-minimizing classifiers and use these results to design efficient hinge-loss-based procedures for monotone classification problems.
By Toru Kitagawa, Shosei Sakaguchi, Aleksey Tetenov
arXiv:2602.04775v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: In high-stakes risk prediction, interval-valued predictions provide a natural way to represent predictive uncertainty. However, standard evaluation...
By Yuqi Li, Matthew M. Engelhard
The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.
By Ryan Edmonds, Yingxiao Ye, Sina Aghaei, Andr\'es G\'omez, \c{C}a\u{g}{\i}l Ko\c{c}yi\u{g}it, Phebe Vayanos
arXiv:2607. 03075v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safety-critical applications require classifiers that are both robust and reliable.
By Nicolas Sournac, Ahmed Baha Ben Jmaa, Bertrand Braeckeveldt
In high-stakes healthcare applications, machine learning models are frequently trained on data from one patient population and deployed on another, creating a distribution shift that degrades both acc...