arXiv Statistics ML

Supervising the Chain Ladder

The paper proposes treating the chain ladder’s pattern selection as a supervised‑learning problem, framing adjustments as penalties and hyperparameters on a convex loss function. It introduces generalized data weights with decay and power parameters, benchmark shaping, and Whittaker‑Henderson smoothing, all combined into a single linear system for minimisation. The authors demonstrate the approach with a real Schedule P triangle, showing how experience‑based and prospective adjustments can be objectively set via a training loop and reserve validation.

arXiv Computer Vision
Aug 24

Difficulty-Calibrated Interpolation Paths for Conditional Flow Matching

The paper introduces Difficulty-Calibrated Flow Matching, a method that adapts the noise-to-data interpolation schedule in Conditional Flow Matching based on a pilot run’s loss profile. By setting the schedule to the quantile function of this difficulty profile, the training trajectory spends more time where the velocity is hardest to learn. Experiments on CIFAR-10, MNIST, and Fashion‑MNIST show that this calibrated path achieves the best FID on CIFAR‑10 and outperforms all fixed schedules in large‑batch, few‑update settings, where compute is most limited.

By Airin Akter Tania, Md Raihan Khan