arXiv:2607. 18573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Delay-risk models are usually judged by predictive accuracy.
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Delay-risk models are usually judged by predictive accuracy. What matters in practice is narrower: with capacity to review only a few shipments, which ones should a manager check first?
arXiv:2609.13840v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A contract-logistics spare-parts operator is paid on order-level service: an order counts only if every requested line is fulfilled, yet forecasters ar...
arXiv:2607. 18530v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Supplier lead time forecasting is a central input to material requirements planning, inventory optimization, and supply chain risk management.
The paper introduces SHAP concentration as a pre‑deployment diagnostic for detecting when conformal prediction will fail under distribution shift, specifically in gradient‑boosted classifiers. Using a COVID‑19 supply‑chain case study, the authors show that higher feature‑importance concentration correlates with larger drops in coverage, while standard shift detectors cannot differentiate between catastrophic and robust outcomes. The diagnostic is validated on additional datasets, and a formal theorem links concentration to worsening conformity‑score bounds, though it does not capture global‑sensitivity failures in neural networks.
arXiv:2608.27704v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When machine learning classifiers are retrained, inputs correctly classified by the previous model version may be misclassified by the updated version,...
The paper audits the IBM Telco Customer Churn benchmark, revealing that common practices inflate performance metrics. It shows that pre‑split SMOTE boosts churn‑class F1 by 13.1 points, that isotonic regression is the best calibration method while temperature scaling fails on tree ensembles, and that the cost‑optimal decision threshold is 5–10 times lower than the F1‑optimal one, saving about $77,000 per 1,000 customers. The authors also test generalisation on Iranian Telecom and Bank churn datasets, and propose a four‑component reporting checklist with reproducible code.