Hugging Face Trending Papers

When Does Machine Learning Beat Value Sorting? A Three-Dataset Diagnostic of Exposure-Weighted Shipment Prioritization

Delay-risk models are usually judged by predictive accuracy. What matters in practice is narrower: with capacity to review only a few shipments, which ones should a manager check first?

arXiv AI
Aug 28

Diagnosing Conformal Prediction Failures Under Distribution Shift: A COVID-19 Case Study

The paper introduces SHAP concentration as a pre‑deployment diagnostic for detecting when conformal prediction will fail under distribution shift, specifically in gradient‑boosted classifiers. Using a COVID‑19 supply‑chain case study, the authors show that higher feature‑importance concentration correlates with larger drops in coverage, while standard shift detectors cannot differentiate between catastrophic and robust outcomes. The diagnostic is validated on additional datasets, and a formal theorem links concentration to worsening conformity‑score bounds, though it does not capture global‑sensitivity failures in neural networks.

By Chorok Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

The Hidden Costs of 99% Accuracy: A Trustworthiness Audit of the Telco Customer Churn Benchmark

The paper audits the IBM Telco Customer Churn benchmark, revealing that common practices inflate performance metrics. It shows that pre‑split SMOTE boosts churn‑class F1 by 13.1 points, that isotonic regression is the best calibration method while temperature scaling fails on tree ensembles, and that the cost‑optimal decision threshold is 5–10 times lower than the F1‑optimal one, saving about $77,000 per 1,000 customers. The authors also test generalisation on Iranian Telecom and Bank churn datasets, and propose a four‑component reporting checklist with reproducible code.

By Soumyadeep Roy
arXiv Machine Learning
2d ago

Beyond Model Ranking: Regime Diagnosis for Distributional-Statistical Misspecification in Industrial Time-Series Forecasting

The paper introduces a regime‑diagnosis framework for industrial time‑series forecasting, highlighting that canonical loss functions embed fixed statistical priors that are violated in real‑world demand regimes such as zero‑inflation, skewness, and high variability. It proposes the Regime‑wise Relative Bias Vector (RBV) as a metric‑agnostic diagnostic that decomposes bias into an intrinsic floor and an excess attributable to training. A large‑scale study across 13 loss objectives and 60,000+ series demonstrates that regime‑aware diagnosis distinguishes optimization‑from‑bias failures and that regime‑aware training can eliminate pooling‑induced bias that mere capacity scaling cannot.

By Pengyu Nie, Chenglang Xu, Yaoshi Chen, Chaogan Ren, Wei Hu, Chao Yang, Jiangong Zhang