arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.
The paper introduces a tail‑aware geometry learning framework for multivariate conformal prediction using ellipsoids. It decouples tail sensitivity from coverage guarantees by learning a metric matrix through volume minimization under a CVaR constraint, followed by standard conformal calibration. The approach is convex, prioritizes high‑residual samples, and theoretically balances ellipsoidal volume against tail severity, with experiments confirming its effectiveness.
The paper introduces a score‑calibrated robustness framework that transforms any fixed point predictor into a decision‑relevant uncertainty representation using distribution‑free conformal calibration. By employing the conformal score as the core unit of robustness, the authors derive both reliability‑based robust optimization and target‑oriented Conformal Robust Satisficing formulations, linking them through a shared robust decision frontier and a fragility measure. Experiments on synthetic data and a real online‑grocery inventory case study demonstrate the framework’s ability to improve reliability, reduce costs, and provide interpretable uncertainty scales for black‑box predictors.
arXiv:2609. 11073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) typically treats the conditional outcome law as fixed and uses ambiguity sets to capture estimation error.
arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2505. 19033v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
arXiv:2606. 31600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction and its variants, including the split conformal prediction, provide a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction intervals or sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
arXiv:2601. 02998v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them.
arXiv:2602. 01733v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees.