arXiv:2606. 19147v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: How can training data be used to compare local updates to the current model, choose an update, and retain valid bounds for the selected update's population-risk change?
arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
arXiv:2603. 20388v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV).
arXiv:2408. 08998v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications.
arXiv:2608. 08424v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.
arXiv:2608. 01130v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A broad range of models face the mismatch where they are updated through trajectory losses but are evaluated by downstream task reward.
arXiv:2606. 19147v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops local certificates for population-risk increments around a current model.
arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.
arXiv:2606. 20115v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees on segmentation quality by calibrating a prediction-set threshold on held-out data.
arXiv:2502. 15131v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the fundamental problem of calibrating a linear binary classifier of the form $\sigma(\hat{w}^\top x)$, where the feature vector $x$ is Gaussian, $\sigma$ is a link function, and $\hat{w}$ is an estimator of the true linear weight $w^\star$.