arXiv Machine Learning

From Cross-Validation to SURE: Asymptotic Risk of Tuned Regularized Estimators

arXiv:2603. 20388v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV).

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Distribution-free Deviation Bounds and The Role of Domain Knowledge in Learning via Model Selection with Cross-validation Risk Estimation

arXiv:2303. 08777v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cross-validation is one of the most widely used tools for risk estimation and model selection in statistics and machine learning, yet its theoretical properties when embedded in a learning procedure remain insufficiently understood.

By Diego Marcondes, Cl\'audia Peixoto
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

Data- and Variance-dependent Regret Bounds for Online Tabular MDPs

arXiv:2602. 01903v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent regret bounds in the stochastic regime.

By Mingyi Li, Taira Tsuchiya, Kenji Yamanishi
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Stabilizing Bandits using Regularization: Precise Regret and A Quantitative Central Limit Theorem

arXiv:2603. 10184v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical inference with bandit data presents fundamental challenges owing to adaptive sampling, which violates the independence assumptions underlying classical asymptotic theory.

By Budhaditya Halder, Ishan Sengupta, Koustav Chowdhury, Samya Praharaj, Koulik Khamaru
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 11

Calibrating Decision Robustness via Inverse Conformal Risk Control

arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.

By Wenbin Zhou, Shixiang Zhu
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Toward Simultaneously Optimal Regret in U-Calibration

arXiv:2606. 18527v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: U-calibration studies online forecasting algorithms whose predictions can be consumed by any unknown downstream agent, guaranteeing sublinear regret simultaneously for all proper loss functions.

By Rafael Frongillo, Haipeng Luo, Nishant A. Mehta, Jon Schneider