arXiv Machine Learning

ARC: Augmented-Rank Conformalization for Changepoint Localization --- Finite-Sample Validity and Distribution-Robust Efficiency

arXiv:2608. 08424v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage.

arXiv AI
Jul 21

First-Order Predictable but Pairwise Fragile: Local Task Adaptation in Trained Transformers

arXiv:2607. 16821v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Task arithmetic, sequential fine-tuning, activation steering, and first-order random search all operate through relatively small perturbations around an already trained checkpoint, and they rely on different local approximations: individual perturbations should be first-order predictable, task updates should compose with controlled interference, useful tangent structure should be stable and possible to estimate, and weight edits should have counterparts in representation space.

By Irina Piontkovskaia, Sergey Nikolenko
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.

By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Conformalized Large Language Models under Configuration Shift

arXiv:2608. 01460v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability.

By Yuqicheng Zhu, Jialin Yu, Lin Li, Gengyuan Zhang, Zhen Yang, Steffen Staab, Puneet Dokania, Philip Torr, Jie Tang, Evgeny Kharlamov
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 25

DeepGOF-1: A Pretrained Convolutional Goodness-of-Fit Test for Logistic Regression with a Computable Consistency Certificate

DeepGOF-1 introduces a pretrained convolutional network as a goodness‑of‑fit test for logistic regression, where the network reads a grid of standardized residuals as an image and outputs a test statistic. The test is fully calibrated via the analyst’s own bootstrap, ensuring the nominal level is maintained regardless of the network’s training. The authors prove exactness under pivotality, asymptotic exactness without it, and provide a computable consistency certificate from the frozen weights, demonstrating superior stability and power across multiple benchmarks and sample sizes.

By Ebrahim Khaled Ebrahim