How Much Can Reliability Drift Under a Fixed Confidence Distribution?
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arXiv:2608.21262v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many machine-learning systems set a threshold at a quantile of a calibration set: conformal predictors that promise 90% coverage by drawing their cut...
arXiv:2608. 01460v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability.
arXiv:2607. 18162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al.
arXiv:2602. 21160v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class.
Signal‑Routed Temperature Scaling (SRTS‑BCE) is a 10‑parameter, argmax‑preserving calibration method that separates calibration objectives from adaptive capacity. It cross‑fits a correctness‑risk score over six logit statistics and assigns a top‑label BCE temperature to each of three risk groups, generalizing TvA‑TS when K=1. Experiments on fine‑tuned CIFAR‑100 and ViT‑B/16 show that SRTS‑BCE reduces ECE from 1.65 to 0.96 with a small calibration budget, outperforming higher‑capacity SMART+BCE when only 250 examples are available, and revealing a budget‑dependent ranking reversal on Swin‑T.
arXiv:2608. 05064v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human.