arXiv:2606. 29911v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision theory provides a formal framework for how agents should make choices under uncertainty, drawing on ideas from philosophy, probability, and causality.
Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i. e.
arXiv:2606. 24160v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2608. 03917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal perception occurs when agents with competing Structural Causal Models (SCMs) of the same system infer different probability distributions, including the hypothetical distributions implied by each agent's SCM under the same set of interventions.
arXiv:2602. 21889v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predictions from ML models support human decision making in several fields, including high-stakes ones such as healthcare and the judiciary.
arXiv:2607. 12826v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws.
arXiv:2606. 04421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many current agentic systems and LLM pipelines correct mistakes by optimizing outcome reward.
This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws. To avoid such predictions, Carl Hempel proposed the Requirement of Maximal Specificity (RMS) for the statistical laws used in the inference.
arXiv:2605. 24528v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real world decision-making requires constructing mental models under uncertainty over evidence, over the underlying causal rules, and over the state of the world itself.
arXiv:2608. 00657v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal inference usually concerns a scalar treatment, yet in many problems the treatment is unstructured: a text, an image, or a sequence of clinical decisions.
arXiv:2607. 28497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic recourse aims to provide individuals with actionable changes to improve their predicted outcomes in high-stakes classification settings, such as loan and mortgage applications.
arXiv:2606. 08275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When an LLM agent fails -- issues a refund it should not have, calls the wrong tool, leaks data -- existing tooling answers what happened (observability) or whether it passed (evaluation), but not which step caused the failure.