The paper proposes a structural causal modelling framework for student competency assessment, moving beyond traditional probabilistic models like item response theory. It introduces a protocol for constructing such models, emphasizing the explicit representation of interventions (e.g., hints) and counterfactual analysis. The authors illustrate the approach with data from an assessment of compulsory school students’ algorithmic skills.
By Francesca Mangili, Alessandro Antonucci, Rafael Caba\~nas
The paper presents SC2R, a semantics‑constrained counterfactual recourse framework designed to support educational decision making. SC2R integrates a calibrated predictive model, integer‑programming recourse generation, an RDF vocabulary for intervention plans, and SHACL validation to enforce constraints such as timing, budget, and availability. Evaluation on the OULAD dataset shows that the framework can generate compact, feasible intervention plans at scale and that semantic validation filters out infeasible recommendations that would otherwise be accepted by simpler optimization approaches.
arXiv:2608. 03673v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many critical reasoning tasks, including clinical diagnosis, legal judgment, and industrial fault diagnosis, require step-dependent causal chains in which early errors propagate and correct conclusions can mask invalid reasoning.
By Jian Zhang, Bingyi Wang, Yizhi Liu
Many critical reasoning tasks, including clinical diagnosis, legal judgment, and industrial fault diagnosis, require step-dependent causal chains in which early errors propagate and correct conclusions can mask invalid reasoning. Although large language models perform well on such tasks, privacy, latency, and controllability motivate distillation into locally deployable models.
arXiv:2606. 29911v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision theory provides a formal framework for how agents should make choices under uncertainty, drawing on ideas from philosophy, probability, and causality.
By Arvid Sj\"olander
The paper introduces SC2R, a semantics‑constrained counterfactual recourse framework designed to provide actionable, feasible intervention plans for students identified as at risk by learning analytics models. SC2R integrates a calibrated predictive model, integer‑programming recourse generation over discrete actions, an RDF vocabulary for representing intervention plans, and SHACL validation to enforce constraints such as timing, budget, immutability, and availability. Evaluated on the OULAD dataset, the framework demonstrates strong predictive performance, scalable generation of compact intervention plans, and the ability to detect infeasible plans that would otherwise be accepted by simpler optimization approaches.
By Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-H\'el\`ene Abel, Bertrand Laforge
arXiv:2608.24500v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: The STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio) experiment (1985, Tennessee, USA) is a landmark hierarchical dataset designed to assess the impact of cl...
By Janis Aiad, Aghiles Drali, Aymen El Ouadrhiri, Anass Ettahiri, Yasser Oufqir, Simon Patry, David Cortes, Marianne Clausel, Emilie Devijver
arXiv:2606. 05983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generative AI makes answers easy and understanding hard, and uncritical use invites cognitive offloading.
By Alexander Apartsin, Yehudit Aperstein
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i. e.
arXiv:2509.05346v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: While large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being adopted to support personalized learning, there remains limited understanding of how thei...
By Bo Yuan, Jiazi Hu
Causal diagnostic models must explain how conclusions follow from evidence because diagnoses guide repairs and treatments. Yet serious cases are scarce, records rarely contain reasoning paths, and data transfer poorly across configurations, complicating local deployment.