The paper investigates why causal Bayesian networks are labeled as causal, noting that interventions are defined within the model while predictions refer to real-world actions. It introduces a formal framework that separates the causal model from the data-generating process and formalizes how actions map to interventions. The authors prove an impossibility result showing that no non‑circular interpretation can satisfy all desirable properties, and they explore the consequences for falsification, causal discovery, representation learning, and abstraction.
By Frederik Hytting J{\o}rgensen, Luigi Gresele, Sebastian Weichwald
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham
arXiv:2606. 24160v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i.
By Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack Lee
Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i. e.
arXiv:2606. 29911v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision theory provides a formal framework for how agents should make choices under uncertainty, drawing on ideas from philosophy, probability, and causality.
By Arvid Sj\"olander
The paper introduces a formal framework that uses symmetries in data to keep causal mechanisms invariant, providing a simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. It outlines how to describe models and queries, and presents strategies for rigorously identifying causal effects from data within this framework. The approach reproduces known results for IID data and extends causal analysis to non‑IID settings, complex queries beyond do‑ or soft‑interventions, and incorporates missing data, transfer, and robustness considerations.
By Martin Rabel, Jakob Runge
arXiv:2608. 19831v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) and structural causal models (SCMs) are the dominant frameworks for graphical causal reasoning, but they cannot adequately represent all real-world causal systems.
By Joris M. Mooij
arXiv:2607. 28497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic recourse aims to provide individuals with actionable changes to improve their predicted outcomes in high-stakes classification settings, such as loan and mortgage applications.
By Srikanth Avasarala, Varun Gupta, Shahin Jabbari, Saber Salehkaleybar, Juba Ziani
arXiv:2608. 13456v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World Models (WM) are increasingly seen as a foundation for intelligent agents that can predict, plan, and act beyond their training distribution.
By Avinash Kori, Fabrizio Russo
The paper introduces the 2-Step Agent framework, a computational model that explains how a Bayesian decision maker updates beliefs and estimates causal effects after receiving a prediction from a machine‑learning model. It provides a tractable solution for the multivariate linear‑Gaussian case, identifies when machine‑learning decision support improves outcomes, and demonstrates that a single misaligned prior can cause the support to worsen decisions even with a well‑specified model.
By Otto Nyberg, Davide Tugnoli, Fausto Carcassi, Giovanni Cin\`a
arXiv:2501. 05844v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of research in statistics and machine learning in recent years, promising computational techniques to reveal ``true'' causality.
By Vyacheslav Kungurtsev, Leonardo Christov Moore, Gustav Sir, Martin Krutsky
arXiv:2606. 16933v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) systems often degrade when operating conditions differ from those previously encountered, reflecting distributional shifts in the underlying data-generating process.
By Ardianto Wibowo, Paulo E Santos, Amer Baghdadi, Matthew Stephenson, Karl Sammut, Jean-Philippe Diguet