arXiv Machine Learning

The Label Defines the Timescale: Trait-State Limits of Temporal-Aggregate Learning

arXiv:2608. 01587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learning benchmarks often pair a label that aggregates a long temporal horizon with input observed through one or a few short windows.

arXiv AI
Jun 15

Recovering Stranded Discrimination in Knowledge Tracing: Per-Item Bias Correction via Empirical-Bayes Shrinkage

arXiv:2606. 14123v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deployed knowledge-tracing models are typically frozen after training, yet systematic per-item logit bias arises, from limited per-item expressivity in backbone architectures and from post-deployment shifts in item properties, degrading prediction quality.

By Xiaoran Yan, Cheng Tang, Atsushi Shimada
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification

arXiv:2606. 16034v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions.

By Arthur Chagas, Arthur Buzelin, Yan Aquino, Pedro Bento, Gisele L. Pappa, Wagner Meira Jr., Cristiano Arbex Valle
arXiv AI
Sep 23

TimeLitmus: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Cross-Modal Understanding and Explanation Faithfulness in Event-Conditioned Time-Series Prediction

arXiv:2609.24677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to make predictions from numerical time-series histories and textual events. Yet accuracy alone cann...

By Jie Gong, Maowei Jiang, Zhiwei Liu, Yankai Chen, Guojun Xiong, Xue Liu, Min Peng, Qianqian Xie, Sophia Ananiadou
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling

arXiv:2606. 16219v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing.

By Zongren Zou, Th\'eo Bourdais, Ricardo Baptista, Houman Owhadi
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 17

GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

arXiv:2607. 14733v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable.

By Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai, Niansheng Tang, Hongtu Zhu