arXiv:2608. 10433v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecast accuracy does not tell us which past inputs produced a prediction.
By Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian
Forecast accuracy does not tell us which past inputs produced a prediction. We separate three questions for time-series models with known delay structure: can the true delay be recovered from the observed data, does the model report it, and does the forecast actually use the same history?
arXiv:2608. 10433v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-series forecasters increasingly accompany numerical predictions with explicit temporal reports, such as delays or selected history, but a correct report need not describe the information actually used by the forecast.
By Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian
arXiv:2608. 06765v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Continuous-time dynamic graph models predict future links by compressing past interactions into neural states.
By Minwoo Yu, Young-guk Ha
arXiv:2608. 10553v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free prediction intervals for fixed forecasters, but its standard calibration procedure is often inefficient for time series data, where forecast errors are temporally dependent and change across time and operating conditions.
By Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee, Yongjae Lee
The paper introduces Horizon-Resolved eXplanation (HRX), a framework that adds a horizon axis to time‑series forecasting explanations, allowing each forecast step to have its own importance map. HRX operates as a plug‑in for any differentiable forecaster, includes an evaluation protocol that tests the impact of removing top‑ranked inputs, and a rank criterion to decide when horizon resolution is beneficial. Experiments across multiple backbones and datasets demonstrate that incorporating the horizon axis improves explanation quality and that the step‑wise dependence is low‑dimensional, requiring only a few shared maps regardless of forecast length.
By Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Sungdong Yoo, Minjae Kim, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin Ahn