arXiv:2607. 18298v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that a single climate realization can be decomposed into forced and internal components by treating external forcing as a dynamical driver within a linear stochastic system, an idea grounded in pullback attractor theory.
arXiv:2602. 13847v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A central challenge across science and engineering is to build data-driven reduced-order models of turbulent dynamical systems that reproduce stationary statistics, predict responses to external perturbations, and remain practical for real-world applications.
arXiv:2606. 07898v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-resolution regional climate simulations provide critical information for climate impacts assessments but remain computationally expensive, motivating the development of machine-learning downscalers and emulators.
arXiv:2605. 14285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science.
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
arXiv:2606. 27277v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions.
arXiv:2608. 09966v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: European summer warming reflects interactions among background change, persistent ocean--land--circulation states, and same-season variability.
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
arXiv:2605. 22242v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes.
arXiv:2608. 14716v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals.
arXiv:2601. 17647v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quantifying the causal relationship between sea ice thickness and sea surface height (SSH) is essential for understanding the mechanisms driving polar climate dynamics.
arXiv:2602. 13416v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting.
arXiv:2606. 30920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1{\deg} grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level central pressure, without modifying model dynamics.