As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill.
arXiv:2606. 19302v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints.
arXiv:2603. 22320v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: For decades, physics-based climate models have been used to provide insights for climate decision-making.
arXiv:2603. 22320v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: For decades, physics-based climate models have been used to provide insights for climate decision-making.
arXiv:2606. 18338v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets.
arXiv:2509. 15942v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale.
arXiv:2606. 07898v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-resolution regional climate simulations provide critical information for climate impacts assessments but remain computationally expensive, motivating the development of machine-learning downscalers and emulators.
arXiv:2607. 28220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states.
arXiv:2510. 02415v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed.
Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states. Yet in a warming world, improving early warnings of extreme heat is an increasingly critical challenge.
arXiv:2606. 04658v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Optimizing urban layouts for climate adaptation requires balancing building density with cold-air ventilation.
arXiv:2606. 14570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function.
arXiv:2608. 09948v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: No single AI weather model excels at all variables, pressure levels, and lead times.