arXiv AI By Graham Clyne, Guillaume Couairon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claire Monteleoni, Anastase Charantonis

ArchesClimate: Probabilistic Decadal Ensemble Generation With Flow Matching

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arXiv:2509. 15942v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv AI.

arXiv AI
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Evaluating Skill and Stability of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen under Multi-Decadal Climate Simulations

arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.

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Optimal scenario design for climate emulation

As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill.

arXiv Machine Learning
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Optimal scenario design for climate emulation

arXiv:2606. 19302v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints.

By Christopher B. Womack, Shahine Bouabid, Andrei Sokolov, Popat Salunke, Glenn Flierl, Sebastian D. Eastham, Noelle E. Selin
arXiv Computer Vision
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Climate Physics Dynamic Matching

The paper introduces Climate Physics Dynamic Matching (ClimPhyDM), a variational, simulation‑free framework that blends an advection‑type physics prior with data‑driven components for weather forecasting. It leverages deep generative models to capture complex dynamical systems while preserving underlying physical structure. On the ERA5 benchmark, ClimPhyDM outperforms existing methods such as ClimODE and GB‑DM, achieving lower error over extended horizons and demonstrating improved temporal stability and resistance to error accumulation, all while training on a single modest 12 GB consumer GPU.

By Gurjeet Sangra Singh, Frantzeska Lavda, Alexandros Kalousis