NeuralBES is a differentiable emulator that blends a physics‑based resistance–capacitance thermal model with a shared neural encoder to predict building energy use. By mapping building metadata to physically bounded model coefficients, it solves a scalar linear recurrence in log‑space and uses a predictor–corrector loop to handle thermostat nonlinearity while maintaining full‑horizon gradient flow. Trained on the ResStock dataset, NeuralBES accurately models heterogeneous buildings across climate zones, achieving physics‑valid predictions with fewer parameters than transformer and recurrent baselines and outperforming grey‑box RC models in mean absolute percentage error.
As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill.
The paper introduces the Estimator from Scratch, a neural network that embeds RC thermal building equations to estimate parameters, and its extension, the Pretrained Estimator, which is pretrained on multiple buildings to avoid initial‑guess dependence. Both methods outperform a genetic‑algorithm estimator and a fully black‑box neural network across simulated and real buildings, achieving superior prediction accuracy and lower, more consistent MPC costs. The Pretrained Estimator is highlighted as a robust, computationally efficient, and initial‑guess‑free alternative for RC parameter estimation, with potential applicability to other control‑oriented dynamical systems.
arXiv:2606. 19302v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints.
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
arXiv:2608. 19804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Buildings account for roughly one-third of global energy consumption and CO$_2$ emissions.
Buildings account for roughly one-third of global energy consumption and CO$_2$ emissions. Optimizing indoor climate systems plays a critical role for urban climate mitigation aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 13.
arXiv:2608.20024v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Forecasting models trained on historical da...
arXiv:2606. 02852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term forecasting of residential energy load and indoor temperature is essential for home energy management systems, grid-level demand response, and community energy efficiency efforts.
arXiv:2608. 09255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available.
The paper investigates why latent neural surrogate solvers, which compress physical system dynamics into a lower‑dimensional space, often fail during long‑horizon autoregressive rollouts. It demonstrates that training the latent representation only for reconstruction leads to instability, and proposes a set of training interventions—Koopman operator learning, Hamming noise injection, and multi‑step rollout fine‑tuning—that align the latent space with long‑horizon forecasting. These interventions reduce long‑rollout error by about 40 % and achieve accuracy comparable to full‑resolution models while using far fewer floating‑point operations and GPU memory, enabling stable extrapolation in mesoscale crystal‑plasticity simulations of high‑cycle fatigue.
arXiv:2505. 02979v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose a novel inverse-modelling approach that estimates the parameters of a simple land-surface model (LSM) by assimilating data into a differentiable, physics-based forward model formulated using convolutional operations.