Counterfactual Predictions in Scientific Emulators Without Controlled Experiments
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arXiv:2606. 19302v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints.
As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill.
arXiv:2609.23753v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative world models aim to predict future states conditioned on actions, where action controllability is fundamental for reliable dynamics modeli...
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
The paper investigates how to collect data for recalibrating a misspecified simulator that models a partially observed real-world system as a fully observed Markovian process. It compares four data‑collection strategies: never recalibrating, passive on‑policy recalibration, continuous exploration across all units, and randomized experimentation on a sample of units. Theoretical analysis and a vending‑machine simulation show that experimentation can outperform passive adaptation when drift is invisible to on‑policy data or when recalibration lags behind ongoing drift, while exploration is preferable when trying worse actions is costly and dynamics may not have changed.
The paper introduces an action‑conditioned world‑modeling framework that turns Earth‑system simulator trajectories into training data for controllable state‑transition learning. By pretraining on naturally observed state changes as implicit action supervision and using masked response learning, the model can infer unobserved variables and learn coupled system dependencies. Experiments on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions demonstrate that the model maintains long‑horizon emulation accuracy while enabling structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem‑cycle variables.