arXiv Machine Learning

What Uncertainties Do We Need for Dynamical Systems?

arXiv:2606. 11988v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has received considerable attention in machine learning research, mainly in the context of supervised learning but also in other settings such as generative modeling.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression

arXiv:2504. 18433v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations.

By Christopher B\"ulte, Yusuf Sale, Timo L\"ohr, Paul Hofman, Gitta Kutyniok, Eyke H\"ullermeier
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 19

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of In-Context Learning for Robust Measure of LLM Prediction Confidence

arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.

By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

All Models are Wrong, Knowing Where is Useful: On Model Uncertainty in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606. 01363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) infers information about the environment from a learned dynamics model and bears the potential to address open problems such as data efficient and safe learning in robotics.

By Bernd Frauenknecht, Devdutt Subhasish, Artur Eisele, Friedrich Solowjow, Sebastian Trimpe