The paper challenges the common practice of estimating aleatoric uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) by generating multiple clarified inputs and comparing the resulting answers. It argues that answers are unnecessary, costly, and can introduce epistemic leakage, proposing instead a clarification-only method that directly assesses ambiguity from the space of plausible interpretations. Experiments on three benchmarks show the new approach improves AUROC, reduces computational cost, and yields uncertainty estimates less correlated with epistemic uncertainty.
By Omer Nahum, Niv Nayman, Jonathan Fhima, Alon Zolfi, Jeremy Levy, Shai Mazor, Paolo Favaro
arXiv:2602. 08142v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation.
By H. Martin Gillis, Isaac Xu, Thomas Trappenberg
arXiv:2608. 10398v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Variational autoencoders generate samples from probabilistic latent representations but do not distinguish uncertainty about the latent location from variability around it.
By Ge Wang
arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.
By Jinseok Chung, Minkyoung Song, Hyunji Jung, Namhoon Lee
arXiv:2505. 02743v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process.
By Jiaxiang Yi, Miguel A. Bessa
arXiv:2608.24518v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a vital role in enhancing the reliability of deep learning model predictions, especially in scenarios with high-d...
By Leonhard F. Feiner, Manuel Nickel, Martin Menten, Laurin Lux, Rickmer Braren, Daniel Rueckert, Georgios Kaissis, Raphael Rehms, Johannes Paetzold