arXiv:2505. 08784v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety.
arXiv:2606. 00419v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for the deployment of machine learning predictors in real-world scenarios where the data distribution may shift over time (i.
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2608. 12100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In high-stakes applications, reliable confidence estimates are as important as the predictions themselves.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2601. 21455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction(CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
arXiv:2606. 27269v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models.
arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.
arXiv:2508. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is well-suited for uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting due to its distribution-free coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2606. 31653v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Certified training aims to produce models whose predictions can be formally verified against adversarial perturbations, typically by optimising upper bounds on the worst-case loss over an allowed perturbation set.
arXiv:2606. 09923v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers.