arXiv:2608. 07472v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wildfire prediction models typically discretize study areas into uniform grids, ignoring the heterogeneous spatial distribution of ignitions.
arXiv:2609.36315v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Wildfires are an increasing hazard to ecosystems, air quality, and human systems, creating a growing need for datasets that support systematic develo...
The paper proposes a data-driven protocol that uses multispectral Landsat‑8 imagery and connected‑component analysis to characterize fire‑region size distributions for active wildfire segmentation. Three segmentation architectures—U‑Net, DeepLabV3+, and SegFormer—are evaluated under different SWIR‑based spectral configurations, with U‑Net showing the strongest robustness and SWIR2 consistently delivering the best results. The study highlights the importance of both spectral band selection and architectural design for robust satellite‑based active wildfire mapping, especially when training on low fire‑pixel density images.
arXiv:2607. 16472v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past decades, the frequency of global wildfires has been increasing steadily.
Annual Earth‑observation embeddings, specifically Tessera, can encode wildfire disturbance signals well enough to map burned areas without needing curated fire‑specific imagery or dense time‑series analysis. In tests, linear models using a single Tessera embedding matched or outperformed paired pre‑ and post‑fire HLS imagery and post‑fire imagery alone, achieving high F1 scores for burn‑scar delineation and regional mapping. The approach successfully mapped all same‑year fires in benchmark scenes, recovered 97% of California burned area without California training data, transferred to European fires with high accuracy, and even estimated ignition timing within a 13‑day error margin. "whyItMatters":"The study demonstrates that pre‑trained annual embeddings can simplify and scale burned‑area mapping, reducing reliance on dense time‑series data and enabling more efficient wildfire monitoring."
The paper presents a three‑stage framework that merges a Random Forest (RF) model with a cellular automaton (CA) to model large‑scale wildfire spread. First, an RF trained on the 2021 Canadian fire season predicts daily pixel‑level fire‑occurrence probabilities. Second, optional spread‑rate priors are supplied by quantile gradient boosting models for sensitivity analysis. Third, an RF‑informed CA integrates the RF probability layer with neighbourhood‑driven spread on a 5 km grid, achieving higher spatial overlap than CA‑only baselines in 2023 simulations and demonstrating improved performance on 2022–2024 datasets (AUC 0.725–0.795).
arXiv:2606. 11676v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread.
WildfireSpreadBench evaluates machine‑learning models for predicting next‑day wildfire spread, comparing five discriminative and one generative architecture on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The study shows that model rankings differ markedly when using Average Precision versus threshold‑dependent metrics such as F1 and IoU, revealing three distinct prediction profiles—over‑predicting, balanced, and under‑predicting—that AP alone cannot distinguish. Expanding input channels modestly affected AP, underscoring that AP may favor models with predictions poorly suited for operational use.
The article introduces an open image dataset for active‑fire segmentation in satellite imagery, comprising 2,148 image‑mask pairs from 25 California wildfires captured between July 2020 and August 2026. Each 512×512 pixel, three‑channel image is a Sentinel‑2 Level‑2A composite of bands B12, B11, and B8A, with a fixed linear rendering applied uniformly. Masks distinguish background, short‑wave‑infrared rule‑based active fire, and invalid observations, and the dataset includes chip‑level metadata, an incident‑disjoint split, and a mask‑blind analyst review of 233 test chips.
arXiv:2608. 05265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas.
arXiv:2610.01994v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wildfires pose severe risks to human life, ecosystems, and property. This study presents a machine learning approach for wildfire detection from GOES A...
arXiv:2606. 18280v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present IOAH3 (Importance-Oriented Adaptive H3 partitioning), a computational method for constructing data-driven spatial partitions of geo-referenced observation domains.
arXiv:2606.10174v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wildfire detection and monitoring are critical for mitigating fire spread and reducing environmental and infrastructural damage. In this work, we i...