PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy.
whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
arXiv:2607. 15721v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants.
By S M Asif Hossain, Ruksat Khan Shayoni, M. F. Mridha, Jungpil Shin
arXiv:2607. 14191v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pediatric electronic health records capture developmentally structured clinical trajectories, yet their potential for generative healthcare foundation models remains largely unexplored.
By Matthew Brady Neeley, Jorge Botas, Johnathan Jia, Lin Yao, Daniel Palacios, Benjamin Choi, Zhandong Liu, Hyun-Hwan Jeong
The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
By Yunlong Wang
arXiv:2511. 16839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Purpose: Heart failure (HF) discharge planning depends on identifying patients at risk of deterioration or death, yet accurate prediction from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) remains challenging.
By Falk Dippel, Yinan Yu, Annika Rosengren, Martin Lindgren, Christina E. Lundberg, Erik Aerts, Martin Adiels, Helen Sj\"oland
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv:2608. 19578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) can worsen rapidly, making timely prediction a clinical priority.
By Dongyang Wang, Weihao Qu, Ling Zheng, Haowen Pan
arXiv:2604. 27967v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: We introduce StructGP, a continuous-time multi-task Gaussian process that couples process convolutions with differentiable structure learning to uncover a sparse, ordered directed acyclic graph (DAG) of inter-variable dependencies while preserving principled uncertainty.
By Ivan Lerner, Jean Feydy, Alexandre Kalimouttou, Anita Burgun, Francis Bach
arXiv:2606. 13880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate estimation of long-term care transition probabilities is central to disability insurance pricing, reserving, and solvency assessment.
By Bright Kwaku Manu, Beckett Sterner, Petar Jevtic
arXiv:2607. 26752v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical world models aim to learn a latent state of patient or organ physiology and a transition function that forecasts how that state evolves under interventions, supporting downstream tasks from imaging-based diagnosis to digital-twin treatment planning.
By Behraj Khan, Shabir Ahmad, Syed Ahmad Chan Bukhari, Tahir Qasim Syed
arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.
By Christelle Schneuwly Diaz, Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh Vu, Duy-Cat Can, Gilles Allali, Philippe Ryvlin, Oliver Y. Ch\'en
The study introduces SynerT, a waveform-only hybrid temporal model that uses a causal dilated TCN and dilated recurrent layers to predict early intraoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Two extensions, SynerT-MM and SynerT-Stack, incorporate hemodynamic summaries, preoperative covariates, and a leakage-safe stacked ensemble to improve discrimination and calibration. Evaluated on the VitalDB database with a strict 60‑minute prediction window, SynerT-Stack achieved the best performance across AUROC, AUPRC, and F1‑max, and demonstrated the greatest net clinical benefit after recalibration.
By Quang Minh Nguyen, Duc Minh Le, Ho Nhat Minh Nguyen, Thuy Quynh Nguyen, Trong Nghia Nguyen