The paper evaluates digital twins (DTs) for type‑1 diabetes by measuring how well they rank insulin treatments, rather than just predicting glucose trajectories. Using 30 virtual patients and 21 basal‑bolus regimens, the authors compare six DT methods, finding that a simple average‑patient model, despite low prediction accuracy, ranks treatments better than a highly accurate neural network. The study demonstrates that prediction accuracy does not guarantee useful treatment recommendations, underscoring the need to assess decision quality directly.
By Victor Li, Owen Tucker, Michael S. Hughes, Temiloluwa Prioleau, Shengpu Tang
The study introduces PMB‑NN, a physiological‑model‑based neural network that forecasts glucose levels in type 1 diabetes using a temporal convolutional network trained on 180 minutes of historical data and constrained by a personalized four‑parameter physiological model. Evaluated on 6–8 weeks of continuous glucose monitoring, pump, and meal data from 25 participants, PMB‑NN achieved median mean absolute errors of 16.24, 25.00, and 30.20 mg/dL for 30‑, 60‑, and 120‑minute horizons when basal insulin records were available, outperforming the physiological model alone across all settings. The model also demonstrated expected directional changes for most correction boluses and carbohydrate rescues, and its three‑term variant improved hyperglycaemia accuracy with basal records without significantly altering overall error.
By Yaowen Zhang, Shuhao Que, Ying Wang
arXiv:2607. 15721v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants.
By S M Asif Hossain, Ruksat Khan Shayoni, M. F. Mridha, Jungpil Shin
GlucoFM is a lightweight foundation model for continuous glucose monitoring that aligns irregular CGM data to a 24‑hour grid and splits glucose dynamics into slow‑varying trend and short‑term deviation streams. Pre‑trained on over 109,000 hours of unlabeled recordings, it outperforms existing CGM‑specific models on seven phenotype‑classification tasks, improving average PR‑AUC by 4.1 points and enabling strong cross‑dataset transfer and few‑shot adaptation. When combined with meal, nutrition, and subject context, its frozen encoder delivers the lowest two‑hour postprandial glycemic response errors for trajectory, incremental AUC, peak rise, and peak timing metrics.
By Zechen Li, Keerthana Natarajan, Weizhi Zhang, Menglian Zhou, Simon A. Lee, Yuwei Zhang, Maxwell A. Xu, Zeinab Esmaeilpour, Flora D. Salim, Mark Malhotra, Lindsey Sunden, Shwetak Patel, Yuzhe Yang, Ahmed A. Metwally
arXiv:2606. 09671v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is highly heterogeneous and is typically observed through sparse and irregular longitudinal data, posing challenges for prediction and personalised monitoring.
By Yinyu Huang, Yilin Zhang, Sofia Michopoulou, Christopher Kipps, Rahman Attar
The paper introduces CHDT, an intervention‑conditioned Human Digital Twin generator designed to model multimodal longitudinal patient trajectories. It explicitly accounts for irregular visit intervals and cross‑mediator dependencies, which are often neglected in existing models. Experiments on ADNI and ALPACA datasets demonstrate that CHDT achieves higher long‑horizon patient‑state fidelity compared to baseline methods, with irregular‑time conditioning providing the main benefit and cross‑mediator refinement adding further improvement.
By Saeed Farzi, Sofia Michopoulou, Christopher Kipps, Rahman Attar
The study evaluates time‑series foundation models for continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) forecasting across eight public datasets covering Type 1, Type 2, and non‑diabetes populations. Zero‑shot foundation models did not consistently beat strong task‑specific baselines, but lightweight fine‑tuning of models like Chronos‑Bolt improved root‑mean‑square error by up to 18% in both in‑distribution and out‑of‑distribution settings. Incorporating multimodal dietary context via CGMacros and a residual‑based fusion framework further reduced overall RMSE by ~3% and postprandial RMSE by ~15%, indicating that dietary signals add clinically meaningful value beyond CGM alone.
By Bowen Zhang, Hsiu-Wen Cheng, Hongyu Yang, Evie L. Shen, Joleen Vansomphone, Yuna Li, Kerry Zhou, Zitian Qu, Suning Zhao, Xiangning Deng, Hua Zhou, Jin J. Zhou
arXiv:2606. 18640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Glucose forecasting algorithms are an important aspect of glycemic control management in type 1 diabetes.
By Nathaniel Jeffries, Miriam Wolff, Sam Royston, Elizabeth Healey, Caleb Mayer, David Klonoff, Michael Snyder, Tao Wang
arXiv:2607. 00431v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting models for health-signal digital twins must preserve the oscillatory, frequency, phase, and state-transition dynamics of physiological signals, yet the pointwise metrics used to benchmark them cannot detect when these fundamental properties are lost.
By Md Rakibul Haque, Shireen Elhabian, Warren Woodrich Pettine
Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is highly heterogeneous and is typically observed through sparse and irregular longitudinal data, posing challenges for prediction and personalised monitoring. Existing machine learning approaches have improved AD prediction using multimodal data, yet often focus on static classification or cohort-level risk estimation, providing limited support for subject-specific modelling and uncertainty-aware reasoning.
arXiv:2606. 27334v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Digital twins have emerged as a promising paradigm for personalized healthcare, enabling modeling of individual behavior and health trajectories.
By Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini, Mohammad H. Mahoor, Hiroko H. Dodge
arXiv:2609.08772v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being investigated for physiological time-series prediction, yet their effectiveness may depend not only...
By Andrea Apicella, Pasquale Arpaia, Matteo Orefice, Andrea Pollastro, Roberto Prevete