The paper investigates how to transport the full distribution of treatment effects from a source site to a target site in a cross‑site, one‑armed design where only control units are observed in the target. It proposes learning a transformation between sites via optimal transport on control samples, then applying this transformation to the source treated sample to generate a synthetic target treated distribution. The authors prove convergence of this synthetic distribution to the true target distribution and validate the method with simulations and a patient‑derived xenograft data application.
arXiv:2610.04945v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Destructive single-cell measurements provide unpaired population snapshots rather than observations of the same cells across conditions. Loca...
The paper introduces Distribution‑Conditioned Transport (DCT), a framework that learns transport maps conditioned on embeddings of source and target distributions, allowing generalization to unseen distribution pairs. DCT supports semi‑supervised learning for distributional forecasting by leveraging distributions observed at only one condition. It is agnostic to the transport mechanism and is demonstrated on synthetic benchmarks and four biological applications, including batch effect transfer in single‑cell genomics and modeling T‑cell receptor sequence evolution.
arXiv:2608. 15783v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In transfer-learning settings, a model derived from abundant surrogate labels may be deployed in a target population where gold-standard outcomes are unobserved.
arXiv:2610.07048v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study errors-in-variables problems in which a target study contains only a single error-prone surrogate of an unobserved exposure, while an extern...
arXiv:2608. 19383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Average dose-response functions are widely used to summarize causal effects of continuous treatments, but most existing methods assume that the observed sample represents the target population.
The paper introduces a new estimand for conditional distributional treatment effects that captures how treatments influence the entire outcome distribution, including variance and tail risks, in a covariate-dependent manner. It presents a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal locally and uses it to construct a test for global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions. The test accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy, guarantees valid type‑1 error, is consistent against fixed alternatives, and includes a computationally efficient, permutation‑free algorithm with exact closed‑form expressions for two natural discrepancies.
arXiv:2608. 00701v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reweighting source samples to match a target covariate distribution is a standard response to distribution shift when generalizing evidence from one population to another.
arXiv:2509. 09371v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) protects statistical learning against distributional shifts by optimizing the worst-case performance over a set of perturbed distributions.
arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.
The paper introduces Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment (RT‑SC‑DiD), a method for staggered treatment‑adoption studies that keeps the donor pool fixed by reallocating weights from exiting donors to similar surviving donors while applying a DiD baseline correction. It analyzes distortion from horizon‑by‑horizon re‑optimization, derives bounds on error propagation, and proposes diagnostics and a donor‑only placebo for tuning the transport penalty. Empirical simulations show that intermediate transport regularization reduces average RMSE compared to independent horizon‑specific estimation and strong anchoring, supporting the method’s bias‑variance trade‑off. "whyItMatters":"The method offers a principled way to stabilize synthetic‑control weights over time in staggered designs, potentially improving causal inference when donor support contracts as treatments roll out."
arXiv:2609.36911v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this thesis I develop methods for statistical inference when the distributions arising from complex biological systems are multi-modal, geometricall...
GeoDose-CP introduces a graph‑local conformal inference framework for estimating localized stochastic potential outcomes when dealing with continuous or mixed continuous‑atomic treatments in Earth observation data. The method jointly models intervention‑induced treatment shifts, outcome‑scale Jacobians, and spatial residual dependence, and includes exact weighted candidate inversion, a scalable sparse approximation, and a refusal mechanism for inadequate support. Evaluation on controlled experiments, MineDoseBench, and a multi‑mine study in New South Wales demonstrates high selective coverage and identifies limitations when longitudinal treatment data are unavailable.