arXiv Machine Learning

Inferential Evaluation of Surrogate-Derived Models under Covariate Shift

arXiv:2608. 15783v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In transfer-learning settings, a model derived from abundant surrogate labels may be deployed in a target population where gold-standard outcomes are unobserved.

arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 22

Doubly robust target inference for generalized linear regression with completely missing covariates

arXiv:2609.24086v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale multipurpose cohort studies and biobanks often omit covariates needed for specific downstream analyses. We study target-population infere...

By Huali Zhao (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology), Ke Deng (Department of Statistics and Data Science, Tsinghua University)
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 10

Prediction-Powered Active Testing

arXiv:2607. 08347v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled.

By Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Valentin Kilian, Daolang Huang, Tom Rainforth, Fran\c{c}ois Caron
arXiv AI
Aug 6

Distributionally Robust Transfer Learning with Structurally Missing Covariates, with Application to Cross-National Cardiac Arrest Prediction

arXiv:2605. 24212v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain.

By Siqi Li, Chuan Hong, Ziye Tian, Benjamin Sieu-Hon Leong, Koshi Nakagawa, Hideharu Tanaka, Sang Do Shin, Khuong Quoc Dai, Do Ngoc Son, Marcus Eng Hock Ong, Nan Liu, Molei Liu
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 9

Prediction-Powered Active Testing

Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled. However, existing estimators fail to exploit the informative predictions of powerful black--box models, even though such predictions are increasingly available in settings where labels remain expensive.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Prediction-Powered Conditional Inference

arXiv:2603.05575v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a blac...

By Yang Sui, Jin Zhou, Hua Zhou, Xiaowu Dai
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

Learning Risk Scores Robust to Unobserved Confounders

The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.

By Ryan Edmonds, Yingxiao Ye, Sina Aghaei, Andr\'es G\'omez, \c{C}a\u{g}{\i}l Ko\c{c}yi\u{g}it, Phebe Vayanos
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

When AUC Misleads: Polarization-Aware Evaluation of Deepfake Detectors under Domain Shift

arXiv:2606. 19184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in generative AI, such as diffusion models and face-swapping tools, have enabled the creation of highly realistic deepfakes, leading to real-world harms including financial fraud and non-consensual explicit content.

By Dat Nguyen, Cosmin Radoi, Romain Hermary, Marcella Astrid, Nesryne Mejri, Enjie Ghorbel, Djamila Aouada